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Thu
Nov 06 2008

The darkest moment?

Mike Duff

Embattled car dealers might try to hold onto the thought that it’s allegedly blackest just before the dawn arrives, but the latest registration figures make it clear that the motor industry is now properly into its biggest slump for nearly two decades.

There was already plenty of anecdotal evidence that showrooms had been filled with little more than tumbleweed for the last quarter – but October’s numbers make it clear that the ‘58’ registration plate-change was a complete damp squib in sales terms. The worse news is that there’s no chance things will improve substantially in the traditionally slow months of November and December.

The scariest thing for industry executives is the way that pretty much every segment is being savaged. Collapsing sales for Jeep and Land Rover in the face of squeezed credit and the £1-plus litre of fuel probably don’t come as much of a surprise. But how demoralizing must it be for companies like Honda to watch registration numbers collapse despite strong ranges and keen prices?

Some car companies take comfort in doing better than competitors. And it’s true that only losing 10 per cent when the market drops by 20 per cent could be viewed as some kind of triumph. But some car company execs make no secret of the fact that things might get substantially worse before they get better – as a senior suit at a premium manufacturer admitted to me earlier in the week, “we’re in uncharted territory here.”

 

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About Mike Duff

Used to edit this website, but now back to reporting from the road - and contemplating which sub-£1000 1990s German executive to buy next

Comments

theop November 6, 2008 5:00 PM

Let's all go for free coffee and croissants to Porsche Mayfair... They have open days every Saturday and (little birdie tells me) stopped bidding for used cars altogether.... Last two months it was a very low bid (they showed a colleague £10k bid on a 04 Boxter S with sub 20k miles...), now it seems they ve stopped completely...

ESP deactivated November 6, 2008 5:09 PM

I'd be lying if I said I had much sympathy. A couple of speculative forays into dealerships recently has proved that they seem to be happier putting their heads down rather than trying to move metal. The only incentives being offered are those funded by manufacturers - I don't want three years 0 per cent or a guaranteed part-ex... I want £3K off something!

horseandcart November 6, 2008 5:34 PM

How soon before the receivers/administrators are called in? The US is several months ahead in this decline and there's daily news stories there of dealerships folding. A dealership body geared up to flog 2.6 million units annually - 2003/4 - but now handling only sub 2m units must have casualties or else something really odd has been going on these past 'boom' years.

Stop press:

SMMT October registration figs. for commercials: trucks down 31%, vans down 35%.

tommallett November 6, 2008 5:35 PM

I'd be lying if I said I had much sympathy. A couple of speculative forays into dealerships recently has proved that they seem to be happier putting their heads down rather than trying to move metal. The only incentives being offered are those funded by manufacturers

haha, come and have a go then if its that easy! Just out of interest in percentage terms on the cost of a new car how much do you reckon the margins are befor having to actually pay for anything?

horseandcart November 6, 2008 6:16 PM

error:

truck regs. in Oct. down 9.4% not 31%.

- apologies.

Zeddy November 6, 2008 8:40 PM

"how much do you reckon the margins are befor having to actually pay for anything?"

About 7.5 - 10% on mainstream manufacturers.

The manufacturers could bite the bullet and just offload some stock to the dealers with a 15-20% margin for them. Better moving metal than piling it up.

Of course they could just sell straight to Joe Public cutting out some of the goons that masquerade as salesman.

How funny is it when some of them get irritated with you because you know more about the product they are selling than they do themselves?

Monk November 6, 2008 9:14 PM

Maybe , just maybe, I can now walk into my local VW dealership and find some salesman who can be bothered to tear himself away from his desk and talk to me. Or maybe i could now expect finally the phone call I was promised from the Nissan dealer who was going to give a PCP quote, about 15 months should have been enough time for him to have worked out how to turn on his calculator

Harry_Boy November 8, 2008 6:26 PM

Popped into my local BMW dealership today, to ask for an invitation to their Seven Series launch. You'd have though I'd just walked in with a headless corpse in tow...

I did struggle to get them to appear interested - in fact I don't know why I bothered, as they appeared to be the headless corpses...

And it wasn't as though I'd parked up in a 1995 Trabant - the '57 plate A8 Quattro was in full view...

handrew November 9, 2008 2:41 PM

Harry Boy, Germans stopped making Trabants in`91, if I can remember precisely.  A `95 Trabant must be worth much more, than a common-or garden A8...;-). But you`re right, don`t bother with dealers, who are not intereste din making some money. The new 7 isn`t also a particularly exciting car, grab an S8 instead!

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